Oscar 2015 Predictions

Scoff all you want at the irrelevance of the Oscars or any number of award ceremonies the fact remains that the Oscars are a big deal – studios spend millions of their hard earned money on “for your consideration” adverts in trade magazine in hopes that one of theirs will win the coveted golden man and they will get to use “academy award winner actor/director” in their playbill for all eternity. An “academy award winner/nominee” tag breeds instant credibility and lends weight to how interested a casual viewer would be in deciding on which movie to spend their money on.

Oscars often is an incredible platform for the culmination of a long career being honoured with a standing ovation or the start of a great one when an ingénue stumbles her way up the stairs to collect the gold piping the veterans to the finishing line. It is also one big party with plenty of pageantry and for all these reasons and more I for one always eagerly anticipate the Oscars each year even in the year that was less than spectacular movie-wise.

Last year I had an incredible 21/22 prediction of the Oscar race which would have made me a rich man if I was the betting sorts. But this year I am not so sure of putting my money because the list of nominees is a strange one and I have a feeling that a number of the deserving winners are going to be passed up I favour of those that are more closely aligned with the overall taste of the general academy members demographic  Old-White-Male.

Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette in “Boyhood”

Laura Dern in “Wild”

Keira Knightley in “The Imitation Game”

Emma Stone in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

Meryl Streep in “Into the Woods”

Who should/Will win: This one is a vice-like lock – it is Patricia Arquette in Boyhood. It takes an incredible amount of commitment to be associated to a project for 12 years with no real payoff in sight. Patricia Arquette as the mother in this family drama about growing up is incredible in her strength, her vulnerability and her normalness. She is every mother everywhere going through everyday struggles. It takes special talent to portray a real everyday woman on screen and she does it better than anyone else. Her not winning would be a real shame because dedicated as I am to worshiping Meryl Streep (and she was incredible in Into the Woods) I want Arquette to win over Streep.

Supporting Actor

Robert Duvall in “The Judge”

Ethan Hawke in “Boyhood”

Edward Norton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

Mark Ruffalo in “Foxcatcher”

J.K. Simmons in “Whiplash”

Who should/Will win: J.K. Simmons as the jazz teacher from hell in the incredibly taut Whiplash is a clear winner here. You will shudder at the thought of the atrocities he makes the young Milles Teller go through. The only possible upset could be in the form of Robert Duvall who the academy might want to pay their dues to before it is too late. But my money is on Simmons.

Animated Feature

“Big Hero 6” Don Hall, Chris Williams and Roy Conli

“The Boxtrolls” Anthony Stacchi, Graham Annable and Travis Knight

“How to Train Your Dragon 2” Dean DeBlois and Bonnie Arnold

“Song of the Sea” Tomm Moore and Paul Young

“The Tale of the Princess Kaguya” Isao Takahata and Yoshiaki Nishimura

This is a strange one – generally there is a strong Pixar presence and despite the presence of Big Hero 6 I find it hard to believe it could realistically win the award. I loved HTTYD the first one and that was robbed of an award that went to Toy Story 3 the second one while solid didn’t have the heart that the first one did. And when Pixar and DreamWorks cannot be picked a clear winner it is usually one of the foreign studios who sneaks a win. I would still like to see HTTYD2 win as a consolation for the first feature snub.

Cinematography

“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Emmanuel Lubezki

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Robert Yeoman

“Ida” Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski

“Mr. Turner” Dick Pope

“Unbroken” Roger Deakins

It is a crying shame that Hoyte Van Hoytema who manned the camera for Nolan’s Interstellar does not find a mention here. For all its faults Interstellar was visually the most incredible movie this year and he deserved not only a nomination but also a win for the incredible visuals.

Who should win: Robert Yeoman – for the incredible whimsy and energy he infused on screen to complement the story by Wes Anderson in The Grand Budapest Hotel. He has shot each of the Anderson movie with the exception of Fantastic Mr Fox and their partnership has been incredible.

Who Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki for Birdman for those beautifully crafted shots that intertwined the different spaces back and front of the stage in the claustrophobic space of the theatre. Lubezki managed to fill the screen with dynamic visuals without ever crowding the space. And with the love that the academy seems to be having for Birdman I am pretty sure Lubezki will be going for Gold number 2 a year after he won for Gravity.

 

 

Visual Effects

“Captain America: The Winter Soldier” Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick

“Dawn of the Planet of the Apes” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist

“Guardians of the Galaxy” Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul Corbould

“Interstellar” Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher

“X-Men: Days of Future Past” Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie and Cameron Waldbauer

Who Should/Will Win: Interstellar – there shouldn’t even be any discussion about this. To take what is essentially a life’s work in theoretical physics based on the concepts of worm hole, time travel and singularity among other scientific concepts and to turn it into petabytes of data based on 4-whiteboard-long equations and to turn that into stunning visuals is an incredible achievement that cannot be ignored.

Documentary Feature

“CitizenFour” Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy and Dirk Wilutzky

“Finding Vivian Maier” John Maloof and Charlie Siskel

“Last Days in Vietnam” Rory Kennedy and Keven McAlester

“The Salt of the Earth” Wim Wenders, Juliano Ribeiro Salgado and David Rosier

“Virunga” Orlando von Einsiedel and Joanna Natasegara

Who Should/Will Win: I loved Finding Vivian Maier and found it to be incredibly moving but in CitizenFour we have something incredible – one man’s courageous/traitorous action to expose a nation’s overreach in the name of national security and the an incredible tale showing the importance of the fourth estate of democracy – that of Journalism. CitizenFour should in all likelihood but who knows if the bureaucracy can strong arm a notoriously spineless academy.

Foreign Language Film

“Ida” Poland

“Leviathan” Russia

“Tangerines” Estonia

“Timbuktu” Mauritania

“Wild Tales” Argentina

With many acts of anti-Semitism happening around the world and the fact that it also got nominated for best cinematography bodes really well for Ida – a story of a young nun about to take her vows who discovers a terrible family secret. But I have also heard fantastic things about Leviathan as well. But seeing as how America feels politically about Russia I am willing to bet that Ida from Poland will take home the gold.

 

 

Sound Editing

“American Sniper” Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman

“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Martín Hernández and Aaron Glascock

“The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies” Brent Burge and Jason Canovas

“Interstellar” Richard King

“Unbroken” Becky Sullivan and Andrew DeCristofaro

Sound Mixing

“American Sniper” John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin

“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and Thomas Varga

“Interstellar” Gary A. Rizzo, Gregg Landaker and Mark Weingarten

“Unbroken” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and David Lee

“Whiplash” Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley

Now up until this year these categories used to baffle me – what the hell is the difference – then upon doing some basic research I found an apt analogy sound editing is analogous to picking the right ingredients for the dish while sound mixing is the actual cooking bit. It is particularly important with most movies being released in multiple formats including IMAX where the immersive sound requirement need the cooking to be done at a different pressure. So with that being clarified what we are looking for is the movie that had the best sonic ingredients and the one that presented the best dish.

Sound Editing: Interstellar should but American Sniper most like will.

Sound Mixing: Whiplash should but Birdman most likely will.

 Original Score

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Alexandre Desplat

“The Imitation Game” Alexandre Desplat

“Interstellar” Hans Zimmer

“Mr. Turner” Gary Yershon

“The Theory of Everything” Jóhann Jóhannsson

Of all the times that Zimmer should have won he wasn’t even nominated and to think that he got nominated for Interstellar is some sort of an internal academy joke. His background score for the inter-galactic adventure was the second worst thing about the movie only to be topped by Matthew McConaughey.

Who Should Win: Johann Johannsson for Theory of everything.

Who Will Win: Alexandre Desplat probably for The Imitation Game.

Original Song

“Everything Is Awesome” from “The Lego Movie”

Music and Lyric by Shawn Patterson

“Glory” from “Selma”

Music and Lyric by John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn

“Grateful” from “Beyond the Lights”

Music and Lyric by Diane Warren

“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from “Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me”

Music and Lyric by Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond

“Lost Stars” from “Begin Again”

Music and Lyric by Gregg Alexander and Danielle Brisebois

After Happy and Let it go from last year this year is an abysmal showing of songs that are not necessarily that memorable. Academy might want to pay homage to a fading music legend in the form Glen Campbell or probably recognize the civil rights drama Selma which has been shut out from so many other major categories.

Film Editing

“American Sniper” Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach

“Boyhood” Sandra Adair

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Barney Pilling

“The Imitation Game” William Goldenberg

“Whiplash” Tom Cross

I would be happy for either Whiplash or Boyhood to win this – one for a tautly edited movie that does not relent the pace until the very last minute and delivers one hell of story and the other for seamlessly editing 12 years’ worth of footage without the need for subtitling which year we are in. my money though is on Boyhood.

Adapted Screenplay

“American Sniper” Written by Jason Hall

“The Imitation Game” Written by Graham Moore

“Inherent Vice” Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson

“The Theory of Everything” Screenplay by Anthony McCarten

“Whiplash” Written by Damien Chazelle

After being shut out the best director category it is only justified that Damien Chazelle should win for Whiplash. Or even Anthony McCarten for the brilliantly uplifting The Theory of Everything.  But I have a Feeling Graham Moore’s sub-par adaptation will take home the little shiny man.

Original Screenplay

“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Written by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo

“Boyhood” Written by Richard Linklater

“Foxcatcher” Written by E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Screenplay by Wes Anderson; Story by Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness

“Nightcrawler” Written by Dan Gilroy

With the exception of Foxcatcher we have 4 exceptionally original and entertaining screenplays 2 of which are my absolute favourites. It would be a true crowning for Richard Linklater who has given us such modern masterpieces as The Before Trilogy and the most recent Boyhood. To take everyday existence and to elevate to the level of art is what cinematic excellence should be about. Dan Gilroy’s Nightcrawler is also absolutely brilliant in its intensity and the honesty with which the characters are written. There is no redeeming quality to be found in Gilroy’s Lou Bloom and I would love an upset win for Nightcrawler but it is unlikely to happen. More likely that Iñárritu and his team will pip Linklater to the post.

Now the playbill-worthy awards

Director

“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Alejandro G. Iñárritu

“Boyhood” Richard Linklater

“Foxcatcher” Bennett Miller

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Wes Anderson

“The Imitation Game” Morten Tyldum

I love Miller’s previous works but swap him out for Theory of Everything’s Marsh or Whiplash’s Chazelle and I would be a happier man. But life isn’t fair and Linklater will probably not win but Iñárritu will. Linklater’s achievement cannot find any parallels – for a director to invest 12 years of his life and to get the same commitment from his actors to tell a simple tale of a boy coming of age is courageous to say the least. In comparison Inarritu’s masterful telling of a struggle of an actor trying to silence the demons in his head and master his craft while not entirely original is still a glorious triumph. I would like Linklater to win for all the times that he wasn’t even nominated for his Before series but I wouldn’t be too upset if Iñárritu won. But I do miss Fincher not being nominated for Gone Girl.

Actor

Steve Carell in “Foxcatcher”

Bradley Cooper in “American Sniper”

Benedict Cumberbatch in “The Imitation Game”

Michael Keaton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

Eddie Redmayne in “The Theory of Everything”

For me it is a two-horse race between the Academy favourite Michael Keaton who fits the bill of Old-White-Male perfectly but what Eddie Redmayne achieves in Theory of Everything is incredible. Portraying living legend Stephen Hawking Redmayne manages to infuse the humour that is trademark Hawking – he does not just act like hawking he becomes hawking , gait, humour and the shrinking body and everything.

Actress

Marion Cotillard in “Two Days, One Night”

Felicity Jones in “The Theory of Everything”

Julianne Moore in “Still Alice”

Rosamund Pike in “Gone Girl”

Reese Witherspoon in “Wild”

In what is possibly the weakest assemblage of performances by a lead this category inspires very little confidence. Felicity Jones was brilliant as Hawking’s long-suffering wife but in a way her performance isn’t showy enough – it is subtle and it is perfect but Academy generally does not go for that sort of thing. Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl was brilliant but I don’t think it is meaty enough for her to score a win. I think this one will go to Julianne Moore as she plays an academician going through Alzheimer’s. Moore is always brilliant in everything she does and here backed with an emotional story it is a sure fire lock for the best actress nod.

Best Picture

“American Sniper” Clint Eastwood, Robert Lorenz, Andrew Lazar, Bradley Cooper and Peter Morgan,Producers

“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Alejandro G. Iñárritu, John Lesher and James W. Skotchdopole, Producers

“Boyhood” Richard Linklater and Cathleen Sutherland, Producers

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson, Producers

“The Imitation Game” Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky and Teddy Schwarzman, Producers

“Selma” Christian Colson, Oprah Winfrey, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, Producers

“The Theory of Everything” Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce and Anthony McCarten, Producers

“Whiplash” Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook and David Lancaster, Producers

It is again a two horse race for me – both quality pictures just different in their scope. Inarritu’s birdman is the more Academy friendly of the two subjects as it deals with the world of blockbuster movies, actors, theatre and the pursuit of honing their craft and with a tight screenplay and cracking performances it is a worthy contender. Then there is the crowning achievement of Richard Linklater which is the critics and fan darling and the one everyone wants to win but who knows how the academy decides. There are reports that there are voices within the academy that fails to see art in what boyhood achieves as it is very realistic and very normal – the fact that it took 12 years to make and it flips the concept of epic and generational film on its head it art enough. It would be a very brave move from the academy and a validation of its relevance if Boyhood does indeed win. There is an outside chance that Harvey Weinstein sneaks in surprise with The Imitation Games which is not a bad movie by any regards but not worthy of a win. Come 22nd February and we will see.

Category Should Win Will Win
Best Picture Boyhood Birdman
Best Director Richard Linklater Alejandro Iñárritu
Best Actor Eddie Redmayne Michael Keaton
Best Actress Felicity Jones Julianne Moore
Best Supporting Actor J K Simmons J K Simmons
Best Supporting Actress Patricia Arquette Patricia Arquette
Best Writing – Original Screenplay Richard Linklater – Boyhood
Dan Gilroy – Nightcrawler
Iñárritu – Birdman
Best Writing – Adapted Screenplay Damian Chazelle -Whiplash Graham Moore – The Imitation Game
Best Animated Feature Film How to train your dragon – 2 How to train your dragon – 2
Best Foreign Language Film Leviathan Ida
Best Documentary – Feature CitizenFour CitizenFour
Best Documentary – Short Subject Joanna Joanna
Best Live Action Short Film Parvaneh Parvaneh
Best Animated Short Film The Feast The Feast
Best Original Score Johann Johansson Johann Johansson
Best Original Song Glory – Selma Glory – Selma
Best Sound Editing Interstellar American Sniper
Best Sound Mixing Whiplash Birdman
Best Production Design The Grand Budapest Hotel The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Cinematography Hoyte Van Hoytema ( not nominated)
Robert Yeoman
Emanuel Lubezki
Best Makeup and Hairstyling The Grand Budapest Hotel The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Costume Design The Grand Budapest Hotel The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Film Editing Sandra Adair – Boyhood Sandra Adair – Boyhood
Best Visual Effects Interstellar Interstellar

Let me know what you think about my picks and if you agree or disagree and what are your predictions for Film industries big night! Bring on the Oscars 2015!!!

Oscar 2014 Predictions!

Roll out the red carpet and put on your best ball gown the little golden man is rolling into the nokia center this Sunday night.Another year rolls by and the 86th annual academy awards are upon us. While there is more mindless franchise trash than the previous year, there are also several leaps made in terms of meaningful cinema with artistic and technical prowess on full display. A casual glance at the best movie category validates this assessment where we have a futuristic love story competing against a love story and a story of human triumph set against the dark days of black slavery, we have a story of personal greed and depravity set to square off against a space adventure which tests the limits of human resilience. And plus when there is Ellen DeGeneres hosting it is bound to be a party. Plus P!nk is going to perform her aerial acrobatics so you cannot miss this Oscars night (early Monday morning YAWN!!!) .

This year’s Oscar race is a little more curious than most years – there is a clear cinematic landmark in the shape of 12 years a slave but it is a movie that most people are finding hard to watch and there is a possibility that this might hurt the film’s chances at a major win. The best actresses race which is usually the most fiercely competitive field seems to have the most talented actresses this year too with Blanchet, Dench, Adams, Bullock and Streep competing and with such stellar performances it should be a more closely fought race – but it seems to not be the case and the one with the lobbying power of the Weinstein’s will win. The best actor’s race which is generally a lone horse race seems to be the one that is too close to call with a 3 way fight between DiCaprio ( long overdue), McConaughey( on a comeback) and Ejiofor ( the most demanding role of them all).
Each year I try and come up with a list of who I think should win and will win and in most cases it matches but in some it doesn’t. This year too I will take you through the categories and draw up my list of winners and on the morning of 3rd March you will either hear me fist-pumping and cheering as my favorites win or hear me hurl abuses or laugh out loud (if the undeserved ones trip on their way up to the podium – I am looking at you Lawrence)

Actress in a Supporting Role
Sally Hawkins in “Blue Jasmine”
Jennifer Lawrence in “American Hustle”
Lupita Nyong’o in “12 Years a Slave”
Julia Roberts in “August: Osage County”
June Squibb in “Nebraska”

This is one of my favorite category as usually in an ensemble cast the supporting actor’s role can easily be swapped with that of the leading actor’s and that is what makes this a very prestigious award indeed.
Who Should Win : Roberts for August: Osage County – any actor who can say “Eat Fish B*tch” to Meryl and lives to tell the tale should win the award. But jokes aside, she delivers a phenomenal performance the likes of which were only seen from her in Erin Brokovich.
Who Will Win: This is a tough one – Nyong’o or Lawrence . I don’t think Lawrence should firstly because she walked away with the leading trophy last year and also because her role in American Hustle isn’t that substantial. Nyong’o certainly was the reason why we felt as bad as we did for Solomon. Tough call indeed but I would be happy if it was either Roberts or Nyong’o

Actor in a Supporting Role

Barkhad Abdi in “Captain Phillips”
Bradley Cooper in “American Hustle”
Michael Fassbender in “12 Years a Slave”
Jonah Hill in “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Jared Leto in “Dallas Buyers Club”

Who Should/Will Win: Jared Leto if you physically transform yourself to a point where you are unrecognizable and you deliver a smashing performance you should start practicing your acceptance speech from the minute the production wraps up.

Animated Feature Film

“The Croods” Chris Sanders, Kirk DeMicco and Kristine Belson
“Despicable Me 2” Chris Renaud, Pierre Coffin and Chris Meledandri
“Ernest & Celestine” Benjamin Renner and Didier Brunner
“Frozen” Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee and Peter Del Vecho
“The Wind Rises” Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki

This is one category that almost always baffles me with the inclusion of a French animated movie – do the laws of foreign language film not apply to this category? anywho!

Who Should/Will Win : Frozen it has everything that is the hallmark of a Disney classic – a princess, a dashing prince, talking inanimate object and a brilliant song “Let It Be”.

Cinematography

“The Grandmaster” Philippe Le Sourd
“Gravity” Emmanuel Lubezki
“Inside Llewyn Davis” Bruno Delbonnel
“Nebraska” Phedon Papamichael
“Prisoners” Roger A. Deakins

This is one aspect of filmmaking that more often than not finds a mention in my reviews because to be this is one of the most important components that makes or breaks the movie. The director’s vision is only as good as the DoP being able to translate it to the big screen. I loved Deakin’s work in prisoners and am so glad he found a nomination here but…

Who Should/Will Win : Emmanuel Lubezki the man who took us to space and tossed us around like a lone sock in a tumble dry washing machine! Gravity is a visual phenomenon and makes perfect use of every inch of the IMAX screen space.

Visual Effects

“Gravity” Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk and Neil Corbould
“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug” Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds
“Iron Man 3” Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick
“The Lone Ranger” Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier
“Star Trek Into Darkness” Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann and Burt Dalton

Who Should/Will Win : Gravity to me the beauty of the visual effect is in it being so inseparable from the main visuals that it does not feel unnatural and jarring and that was achieved by the team behind Gravity who transformed a giant sink tank into the unending blackness of the space.

Documentary Feature

“The Act of Killing”Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen
“Cutie and the Boxer” Zachary Heinzerling and Lydia Dean Pilcher
“Dirty Wars” Richard Rowley and Jeremy Scahill
“The Square” Jehane Noujaim and Karim Amer
“20 Feet from Stardom” Morgan Neville, Gil Friesen and Caitrin Rogers

Another fantastic genre in movie making that turns in some of the most amazing films – the Act of Killing is a disturbing look into the psyche of the khmer rogue leaders who perpetrated some of the most heinous crimes against humanity. 20 feet from stardom is a fantastic feature about the background singers which had me experiences many bouts of goosebumps with some of the most amazing voices ever heard but hardly recognized.

Who Should Win : Act of Killing
Who Will Win : 20 Feet from Stardom

Foreign Language Film

“The Broken Circle Breakdown” Belgium
“The Great Beauty” Italy
“The Hunt” Denmark
“The Missing Picture” Cambodia
“Omar” Palestine

The category that many a times reflects the political affiliations of the members of the academy more than the technical merit of the winner .

Who Should Win : The Hunt
Who Will Win : The Great Beauty

Sound Editing

“All Is Lost” Steve Boeddeker and Richard Hymns
“Captain Phillips” Oliver Tarney
“Gravity” Glenn Freemantle
“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug” Brent Burge and Chris Ward
“Lone Survivor” Wylie Stateman

Sound Mixing

“Captain Phillips” Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith and Chris Munro
“Gravity” Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro
“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug” Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick and Tony Johnson
“Inside Llewyn Davis” Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland
“Lone Survivor” Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow

The two categories that make the least amount of sense to me but still turned out to be the biggest shocker last year with tie. I think the sound editing and mixing is probably going to go to the one that sweeps the most technical awards and in that case Gravity seems like a natural choice

Who Should/Will Win : Gravity

Music (Original Score)

“The Book Thief” John Williams
“Gravity” Steven Price
“Her” William Butler and Owen Pallett
“Philomena” Alexandre Desplat
“Saving Mr. Banks” Thomas Newman

The category that has me wondering always why the academy hates Hans Zimmer – he either gets shut out of the nominations entirely or gets nominated and doesn’t win even though he deserves it. Here too he got shut out of 12 Years a Slave. However with the wonderful music by Arcade Fire I am hopeful that I will not be too disappointed.

Who Should Win : Her
Who Will Win: Gravity

Music (Original Song)

“Happy” from “Despicable Me 2”
Music and Lyric by Pharrell Williams
“Let It Go” from “Frozen”
Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
“The Moon Song” from “Her”
Music by Karen O; Lyric by Karen O and Spike Jonze
“Ordinary Love” from “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom”
Music by Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen; Lyric by Paul Hewson

Idna menzel performing at the Oscars – after Adele performed last year – it’s like my dreams are coming true! Her performance of Let It Go would have to win the gold! If only she can switch into the witches outfit with green makeup and do an encore of defying gravity – now that would be PERFECT!

Who Should/Will Win : Let It Go

Film Editing

“American Hustle” Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten
“Captain Phillips” Christopher Rouse
“Dallas Buyers Club” John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa
“Gravity” Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger
“12 Years a Slave” Joe Walker

This has got to be Gravity – a film so tightly cut that not one moment feels bloated or unnecessary

Who Should/Will Win: Gravity

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

“Before Midnight” Written by Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
“Captain Phillips” Screenplay by Billy Ray
“Philomena” Screenplay by Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope
“12 Years a Slave” Screenplay by John Ridley
“The Wolf of Wall Street” Screenplay by Terence Winter

Who Should Win : Before Midnight show some love to the troika of Linklater, Delpy and Hawke who have worked for 18 years to come up with a trilogy that is essentially a personal journey in the lives of two amazingly written characters.
Who Will Win : 12 Years A Slave

Writing (Original Screenplay)

“American Hustle” Written by Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
“Blue Jasmine” Written by Woody Allen
“Dallas Buyers Club” Written by Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack
“Her” Written by Spike Jonze
“Nebraska” Written by Bob Nelson

This has got to be Her – it cannot be anything else – a story so original yet so beautifully written that it feels almost commonplace , the future does not feel completely alien and love gets a whole new meaning.
Who Should/Will Win : Her

Now come the big guns!

Directing

“American Hustle” David O. Russell
“Gravity” Alfonso Cuarón
“Nebraska” Alexander Payne
“12 Years a Slave” Steve McQueen
“The Wolf of Wall Street” Martin Scorsese

It is a crying shame that Russell and Payne find a place here and Jonze is shut out of a nomination. In a perfect world Russell and Payne would get replaced by Frears and Jonze or even a Linklater for his phenomenal third movie in the Before/After series.
Who Should Win : McQueen/Cuarón
Who Will Win : Cuaron

Actress in a Leading Role

Amy Adams in “American Hustle”
Cate Blanchett in “Blue Jasmine”
Sandra Bullock in “Gravity”
Judi Dench in “Philomena”
Meryl Streep in “August: Osage County”

A 5-time nominated actress, 2 previous winners, A Dame and a goddess with 18 nominations and 3 wins – this one heck of a category to choose from. With each of the actresses turning in a stellar performance it becomes a question of who wants it the most and who has the ability to campaign the most, And more importantly than not who has the weight of the Weinsteins behind her. If anyone has seen Meryl’s performance as Violet Weston and thinks she does not deserve to win this award then that person is delusional.

Who Should Win: Meryl Streep
Who Will Win: Cate Blanchet ( I love you Cate but watch out for the steps girl)

Actor in a Leading Role

Christian Bale in “American Hustle”
Bruce Dern in “Nebraska”
Leonardo DiCaprio in “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Chiwetel Ejiofor in “12 Years a Slave”
Matthew McConaughey in “Dallas Buyers Club”

Replace Dern with Robert Redford for “All is lost” and even though I love Bale but replace him with Joaquin Phoenix for “Her” we would have the most perfect leading man’s nominee club in a long long time. But be that as it may of the 5 nominated here it is a 2 horse race between McConaughey and Ejiofor with the possibility of DiCaprio pulling an upset ( seems unlikely )

Who Should Win : Chiwetel Ejiofor – Physical transformation may be hard but getting into the psyche of Solomon Northup would’ve been harder.
Who Will Win: I am going to stick my neck out on this one and say that Ejiofor takes home the gold.

Best Picture

“American Hustle” Charles Roven, Richard Suckle, Megan Ellison and Jonathan Gordon, Producers
“Captain Phillips” Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti and Michael De Luca, Producers
“Dallas Buyers Club” Robbie Brenner and Rachel Winter, Producers
“Gravity” Alfonso Cuarón and David Heyman, Producers
“Her” Megan Ellison, Spike Jonze and Vincent Landay, Producers
“Nebraska” Albert Berger and Ron Yerxa, Producers
“Philomena” Gabrielle Tana, Steve Coogan and Tracey Seaward, Producers
“12 Years a Slave” Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Steve McQueen and Anthony Katagas, Producers
“The Wolf of Wall Street” Martin Scorsese, Leonardo DiCaprio, Joey McFarland and Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Producers

My top 5
12 Years a Slave
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
The Wolf of Wall Street

There is an interesting article out in the blogosphere about how many academy members are unable to bring themselves to see 12 Years a Slave because of the unrelenting nature of McQueen’s portrayal of slavery and how this might ruin its chances of winning the best picture and how Gravity might take it home instead. While I loved Gravity I do not think it is worthy of a best picture win, it is a landmark for cinema no doubt but I find it hard to believe that it can take home the big prize but then its got Clooney so stranger things have happened.

Who Should Win : 12 Years A Slave
Who Will Win: like with Ejiofor I have faith that 12 Years A Slave will win the big prize and McQueen will be vindicated for Hunger and Shame.

So there you have it! My predictions for the 86th annual academy awards

Category Should Win Will Win
Best Picture 12 Years a Slave 12 Years a Slave
Best Director McQueen/Cuaron Cuaron
Best Actor Chiwetel Ejiofor Chiwetel Ejiofor
Best Actress Meryl Streep Cate Blanchet
Best Supporting Actor Jared Leto Jared Leto
Best Supporting Actress Julia Roberts Lupita Nyong’o
Best Writing – Original Screenplay Spike Jonze Spike Jonze
Best Writing – Adapted Screenplay Before Midnight -Delpy/Linklater/Hawke 12 Years a Slave – Joe Walker
Best Animated Feature Film Frozen Frozen
Best Foreign Language Film The Hunt The Great Beauty
Best Documentary – Feature Act Of Killing 20 Feet from Stardom
Best Documentary – Short Subject (havent seen any and the will win is based on buzz) The Lady in Number 6
Best Live Action Short Film (havent seen any and the will win is based on buzz) Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything).
Best Animated Short Film Get A Horse Mr Hublot
Best Original Score Arcade Fire – Her Steven Price Gravity
Best Original Song Let it Go – Frozen Let it Go – Frozen
Best Sound Editing Gravity Gravity
Best Sound Mixing Gravity Gravity
Best Production Design The Great Gatsby The Great Gatsby
Best Cinematography Emannuel Lubezki – Gravity Emannuel Lubezki – Gravity
Best Makeup and Hairstyling Dallas Buyers Club Dallas Buyers Club
Best Costume Design The Great Gatsby 12 Years a Slave
Best Film Editing Gravity Gravity
Best Visual Effects Gravity Gravity

I will be for the first time attempting to live tweet the event so come follow me on twitter and join in on the madness! Don’t forget to let me know what you think in the comments below!